While there are various prediction markets that use crowd wisdom to successfully forecast future events, Augur stands out because it’s decentralized in nature and rewards those who successfully predict outcomes through their platform. In essence, Augur is controlled entirely by users who remain anonymous and can thus make predictions and earn income without having to divulge any personal information.
Augur operates on the Ethereum blockchain which means there are no central servers where the platform can be turned off. To use Augur, individuals simply need to go to the Augur website and choose the type of prediction they are interested in to get started. Alternatively, a person can create any topic and place a bet on it.
Shares are sold based on prediction as well as the chances of a particular prediction coming true. For instance, a person who purchases a share for 40 cents is essentially betting that there is a 40% chance that a certain event will or will not take place by a certain date. Those who make accurate predictions gain the equivalent of $1.00 per share; those whose predictions do not come true earn nothing and would lose the wager predicted.
There are many reasons why this platform can be extremely beneficial in the future. Augur promotes wealth sharing through accurate predictions and makes it possible for people who are interested in particular outcomes to come together through their platform. It also has the potential to be a great source of information for any company or individual who wants to gauge public opinion on any given topic.
Augur’s ICO: Predicting Future Success?
Augur is already off to a solid start. It raised $5.2 million from August to October of 2015; $500,000 of which was raised on the first day of its ICO offering. Considering the fact that this offering took place in 2015, the sum of money raised is impressive given the amount of interest and popularity there was with initial coin offerings compared to the interest today. What is more, the company has more than doubled in value in 2017 alone with respect to their coin price.
Management Team: Dr. Jack Peterson & Joey Krug
Dr. Jack Peterson is one of Augur’s core developers. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics and Genetics as well as a Ph.D. in Biophysics.
He has extensive experience working with scientific computing, blockchain programming and website development and has published a number of peer review articles on topics such as complex networks, information theory and statistical mechanics of heavy tailed distributions.
Additionally, Dr. Peterson is a member of five distinct Lifeboat Foundation boards.
I have one resolution this year: launch #Augur
— Jack Peterson (@tensorjack) January 2, 2017
Peterson is active on Twitter and focused on the success of Augur stating in a pinned Tweet his one resolution for 2017 is to launch Augur. Nothing can stop laser focus!
Joey Krug, who co-founded Augur together with Dr. Peterson, is a young computer scientist who began programming Apple computers and then moved onto building his own desktop. Krug was the valedictorian of his high school’s graduating class and a senior officer of this college investment club making a perfect combination for where he’s at today.
He has studied CS in college and was made a Thiel Fellow in 2016. Becoming a fellow is naturally a huge boost not only for Mr. Krug but also for Augur. Thiel Fellows are given a $100,000 grant each for the development of new technology; even more importantly, they now have access to important business connections and valuable advice from seasoned professionals in their field.
Tony Sakitch served as Augur’s Director of marketing from 2015 to 2016. He impressive resume that includes public speaking, consulting Blockchain and financial firms and working with BitPay, DATT and other noteworthy companies. He was recently named as a leader in Blockchain technology and continues to do great things within the industry which are documented on his personal website.
Practical Applications for a Practical Future
Augur isn’t just for tech experts. It is an easy to use platform that just about anyone can take advantage of. Here are just a couple of its many practical uses.
Sport Wagering & Predictions:
Augur is already being named as an ideal platform for sports wagering and was featured on a recent article on ESPN.com. The fact that it is an Internet-based platform with little overhead helps keep fees small, enabling those who place bets to earn more than they would on different platforms. Its decentralized nature ensures that it remains fair, an achievement that is hard to replicate with centralized betting platforms.
Even more importantly, the fact that Augur is a prediction market will make it near-impossible for the CFTC to shut down.
Presidential and Political Outcomes:
Anyone can use Augur to bet on the outcome of any local, statewide or national election in any country. When the election takes place, the results are verified by individuals on Augur who earn Augur currency (known as $REP) for providing accurate information.
The “Wisdom of the Crowd” Phenomena
Augur is based on aggregated crowd wisdom. Instead of deriving opinions from a few experts in a particular field, the platform is based on what users of all ages and walks of life have to say about a particular event, person or happening.
One of the main advantages of crowd predictions is that they are far more unbiased than expert opinions. People want to earn money from the platform and so offer their genuine feelings on present and future events. Furthermore, aggregate wisdom makes it easy to see a particular issue from all angles, thus increasing the odds of getting a clear, accurate picture.
Naturally, there are disadvantages of crowd predictions. They aren’t always right; furthermore, opinions can drastically change as a result of unforeseen events. There is also concern that crowd opinion may not be as well rounded as it may seem, especially if there is a lack of diversity in the crowd.
Can Augur Predict Outcomes Happening in Everyday Life?
Augur can be a fascinating way to gain insight into happenings in daily life. A peek at the platform makes it clear that users are interested not only in major sporting and political events but also relatively mundane events such as OJ Simpson’s parole hearings and the Big Brother TV show. Other popular topics of interest include financial happenings related to cryptocurrency and current healthcare legislation.
This diversity of topics makes Augur a fascinating platform even for those who would not normally make bets or purchase stocks. Outcomes can be monitored in real time and there is always a great deal of excitement as something is always happening on the platform.
Augur: Their Advisory Board Dream Team
Augur’s dream team advisory board is noteworthy and adds value to the company currency. The board includes Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, GMU professor Dr. Robin Hanson and well known legal expert Houman Shadab. The fact that Augur has a well-known attorney as part of its core advisory team gives it a competitive advantage when it comes to navigating murky legal matters.
REP: An Investment Vehicle Through Prediction Currency
It is important to note that REP tokens are not needed to use the Augur system. They are only used by those who verify whether or not a certain event took place. Even so, REP tokens are a valuable investment because they enable owners to earn a small percentage of the profits generated from Augur’s user fees.
While the value of REP tokens is speculative, we feel they’re a solid investment for a variety of reasons. Only a certain quantity of tokens has been created and there are no plans to make more for the foreseeable future. Those who did not purchase REP tokens at the time of the initial offering can buy them on exchanges such as Poloniex, Kraken, and Bittrex. Augur currently advises REP token owners to store their tokens using either a cold storage solution or the Ledger Nano S wallet.
Some alts on sale right now. Added lots to my $REP position. It’s been forgotten recently with all this ICO hype, best time to buy.
— Oliver Miles (@oporters) July 22, 2017
I follow 2 crowds – blockchain & fintech folks. Now my fintech folks talk about blockchain all day. I’m all in on $rep now & again I’m early
— Robert Harmon (@ColoradoHarmon) July 14, 2017
Augur Coins & Tokens: Doing Your Own Research
If you aren’t sure Augur is right for your porfolio, it can be wise to get to know the platform a bit better. Even those who currently use Augur and own $REP would be advised to keep up with their social media channels to stay in the know of future events. Following the outlets below are some good ways to keep up with company happenings:
Slack Channel: http://invite.augur.net/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/augurproject
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/Augur/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/AugurProject
Augur: Our Prediction for Their Future
Augur, along with other decentralized prediction market platforms such as Gnosis, aren’t commonly used today. Even so, their future utility remains bright. Augur is managed by an expert team, has an awesome platform and offers a really unique service to propel our society forward. Unlike Gnosis, Augur works with Bitcoin and other currencies instead of only Ethereum. All in all, Augur is a winning platform that is on the rise and will likely become a household name in the near future.
